Issue 4 (77)
| DOES GOD PLAY DICE? THE SPIELRAUM PRINCIPLE AS AN APPROACH TO THE STUDY OF PROBABILISTIC PLOTS IN FICTION | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Year | 2022 | Number | 4(77) |
| Pages | 86-95 | Type | scientific article |
| UDC | 82-94 | BBK | 83.3 |
| Authors | Golovashina Oksana V. |
Topic | EVENTUAL PLOTS IN RUSSIAN LITERATURE AND THE PROBLEM OF ALTERNATIVE HISTORY |
| Summary | The article considers the principle of ranges (Spielraum) of J. von Kries and its interpretation by M. Weber to analyze the eventual plots in fiction. It draws upon the works of Russian authors, referred to the genre of alternative history. In the first step, the author, analyzing the approaches to the study of probabilistic plots, notes that, thanks to the works of researchers, probabilistic plots began to be considered on the basis of their own logic, and alternativity was justified as a manifestation of objective relations of reality. The application of new methodological tools and the inclusion of fiction stories into the source circulation, in the author’s opinion, will increase interest in this topic and will contribute to the resolution of some methodological problems. The author addresses J. von Kries’s Spielraum principle, which is interpreted as a range of objective possibilities of a hypothesis or event. Thanks to the adaptation of this tool to the historical knowledge by M. Weber, it is possible to analyze what the emerged or imposed patterns of different choices that create such consequences are. This involves comparing the causal components of a historical episode that are actually present with a fictional course of events where one or more components are imagined to be absent, and comparing it with some ideal type. Applying this interpretation to the analysis of probabilistic plots in fiction makes it possible to: 1) show and substantiate the subjectivity of the researcher’s view; 2) consider the possibilities of developing an “interpretive history”; and 3) evaluate the role of works of fiction as a source for analyzing the dynamics of historical consciousness. | ||
| Keywords | Spielraum, J. von Kries, Weber, probabilistic plots, alternative history | ||
| References |
Bestuzhev-Lada I. V. [Bonaparte would not go to Russia]. Poisk [Search], 1999, no. 47 pp. (in Russ.). Bokarev Yu. P. Sotsialisticheskaya promyshlennost’ i melkoye krest’yanskoye khozyaystvo v SSSR v 20-ye gody: istochniki, metody issledovaniya, etapy vzaimootnosheniy [Socialist industry and small peasant economy in the USSR in the 1920s: sources, research methods, stages of relationships]. Moscow: Nauka Publ., 1989. (in Russ.). Butenko A. P. [Was October inevitable?]. Oktyabr’ 1917: velichaysheye sobytiye veka ili sotsial’naya katastrofa? [October 1917: the greatest event of the century or a social catastrophe?]. Moscow: Politizdat Publ., 1991, pp. 50–64. (in Russ.). Cross C. B. Counterfactuals and Event Causation. Australasian Journal of Philosophy, 1992, vol. 70, iss. 3, pp. 307–323. (in English). Ekshtut S. A. [The subjunctive mood in history: the embodiment of the unfulfilled. Experience of historiosophical comprehension]. Voprosy filosofii [Issues of Philosophy], 2000, no. 8, pp. 79–87. (in Russ.). Ekshtut S. A. Na sluzhbe rossiyskomu Leviafanu [In the service of the Russian Leviathan]. Moscow: Progress-Traditsiya Publ., 1998. (in Russ.). Ekshtut S. A. Nadin, ili roman velikosvetskoy damy glazami taynoy politicheskoy politsii [Nadin, or the novel of a high society lady through the eyes of the secret political police]. Moscow: Soglasiye Publ., 2001. (in Russ.). Fishman L. G. [We got]. Druzhba narodov [Friendship of peoples], 2010, no. 4, pp. 200–208. Available at: http://magazines.russ.ru/druzhba/2010/4/fi 17.html (accessed: 10.04.2022). (in Russ.). Fuller S. The Post-Truth about Philosophy and Rhetoric. Philosophy & Rhetoric, 2017, vol. 50, iss. 4, pp. 473–482. DOI: 10.5325/philrhet.50.4.0473 (in English). Gaaze K. Max Weber’s Theory of Causality: an Examination on the Resistance to Post-Truth. Russian Sociological Review, 2019, vol. 18, iss. 2, pp. 41–61. DOI: 10.17323/1728-192x-2019-2-41-61 (in English). Gerasimov O. V. Istoricheskoye poznaniye: opyt istoricheskoy epistemologii [Historical knowledge: an experience of historical epistemology]. Samara: SamGU Publ., 2016. (in Russ.). Glushko M. P. Upushchennyy shans: mogla li Rossiya izbezhat’ tragicheskogo iskhoda? [The missed chance: could Russia have avoided a tragic outcome?]. Moscow: Publ., 1999. (in Russ.). Grebenichenko S. F. Tekhnologiya obnaruzheniya situatsiy al’ternativnosti v protsessakh istoricheskoy evolyutsii [Technology for detecting situations of alternativeness in the processes of historical evolution]. Moscow: S. n., 1995. (in Russ.). Gurevich A. Ya. [General law and concrete regularity of history]. Voprosy istorii [Issues of History], 1965, no. 8, pp. 14–30. (in Russ.). Heidelberger M. From Mill via von Kries to Max Weber: Causality, Explanation, and Understanding. Max Weber Studies, 2015, vol. 15, no. 1, pp. 13–45. (in English). Ioffe G. Z. [1917: a missed alternative]. Rossiya i sovremennyy mir [Russia and the Modern World], 1993, no. 2, pp. 95–112. (in Russ.). Koselleck R. [Accident as the last refuge of historiography]. Thesis, 1994, no. 5, pp. 171–184. (in Russ.). Lotman Yu. M. [Clio at the crossroads]. Nashe naslediye [Our heritage], 1988, no. 5, pp. 1–4. (in Russ.). Lotman Yu. M. [God’s expression or Gambling]. Yu. M. Lotman i tartusko-moskovskaya semioticheskaya shkola [Yu. M. Lotman and the Tartu-Moscow Semiotic School]. Moscow: Gnozis Publ., 1994, pp. 353–363. (in Russ.). MacIntyre A. A Mistake about Causality in Social Science. Philosophy, Politics and Society. Oxford: Basil Blackwell, 1962, pp. 48–70. (in English). [Materials of the Round Table “20th century: alternatives of development”]. Rabochiy klass i sovremennyy mir [Working class and the Modern World], 1989, no. 1, pp. 60–71. (in Russ.). McCloskey D. N. History Differential Equations and Narrative Problems. History & Theory, 1991, vol. 30, no. 1, pp. 21–36. DOI: 10.2307/2505289 (in English). Mogilnitsky B. G. [Alternative historical development in the Leninist theory of people’s revolution]. Metodologicheskiye i istoriograficheskiye voprosy istoricheskoy nauki [Methodological and Historiographical Issues of Historical Science], 1974, no. 9, pp. 4–14. (in Russ.). Nekhamkin V. A. [Methods of Putting Forward Alternative Historical Hypotheses in Science and Beyond: Philosophical and Methodological Analysis]. Elektronnyy nauchno-obrazovatel’nyy zhurnal “Istoriya” [Istoriya], 2021, vol. 12, iss. 12 (110), part 2. Available at: https://history.jes.su/s207987840013710-0-1/ (accessed: 04.07.2022). DOI: 10.18254/S207987840013710-0 (in Russ.). Nekhamkin V. A. [Paradigms of counterfactual modelling of the past in social cognition: results and development prospects]. Sotsium i vlast’ [Society and Power], 2019, no. 5 (79), pp. 7–18. DOI: 10.22394/1996-0522-2019-5-07-18 (in Russ.). Nikiforov E. A. [To the problem of alternativeness in Russia’s social development]. Istoricheskoye znacheniye NEPa [The historical signifi cance of the NEP]. Moscow: II SSSR Publ., 1990, pp. 202–214. (in Russ.). Rodin A. A. Osnovaniya veroyatnostnogo modelirovaniya istorii: kand. diss. [Foundations of probabilistic modeling of history: Diss. Cand.]. Ekaterinburg, 1996. (in Russ.). Rogochev A. G. Al’ternativy rossiyskoy modernizatsii: sibirskiy aspekt: (1917–1925) [Alternatives to Russian Modernization: Siberian Aspect: (1917–1925)]. Krasnoyarsk: KGU Publ., 1997. (in Russ.). Schermer M. Exorcising Laplace’s Demon: Chaos and Antichaos, History and Metahistory. History & Theory, 1995, vol. 34, no. 1, pp. 59–83. DOI: 10.2307/2505584 (in English). Schermer M. The Chaos of History: on a Chaotic Model that Represents the Role of Contingency and Necessity in Historical Sequences. Nonlinear Science Today, 1993, vol. 2, no. 4, pp. 2–12. (in English). Shemyakin Ya. G. [Theoretical problems of researching the phenomenon of alternative]. Annaly. Nauchno-publitsisticheskiy al’manakh [Annaly. Scientific publicistic almanac]. Donetsk: DO SAMI Publ., 1992, no. 3, pp. 15–31. (in Russ.). Treiber H. Max Weber, Johannes von Kries and the Kinetic Theory of Gases. Max Weber Studies, 2015, vol. 15, no. 1, pp. 47–68. (in English). Uvarov P. Yu. [Introductory word]. Odissey. Chelovek v istorii [Odysseus. Man in History]. Moscow: Nauka Publ., 1999, vol. 1999, pp. 3–9. (in Russ.). Virtual History: Alternatives and Counterfactuals. London: Papermac, 1997. (in English). Weber M. “Objectivity” in social science and social policy. The methodology of the social sciences. New York: Free Press, 1949, pp. 50–112. (in English). Weber M. Basic concepts in sociology. New York: Citadel Press, 2002. (in English). Weber M. Critical Studies in the Logic of the Cultural Sciences. Complete Methodological Writings. London: Routledge, 2012, pp. 139–184. (in English). Weber M. Roscher and Knies and the Logical Problems of Historical Economics. Complete Methodological Writings, New York: Routledge, 2012, pp. 3–94. (in English). |
||
| Download in PDF | |||
